Foia documents essentials of postcold war deterrence 1995 textversion pdf version reports and articles. Essentials of postcold war deterrence infogalactic. Postcold war conflict deterrence examines the meaning of deterrence in this new environment and identifies key elements of a post cold war deterrence strategy and the critical issues in devising such a strategy. Contains evidence that the mindest detailed in the doomsday machine continues in a postcold war environment. Deterrence is the usage of the nuclear weapons in a defensive manner the policy committee. The impact of weapons of mass destruction proliferation on. The items in the righthand bar provide access to text and pdf versions of essentials of postcold war deterrence. Essentials of postcold war deterrence 1995 introduction over the period of the cold war, both the united states and the soviet union developed an understanding of deterrence and its role in preventing war with one another. National military strategy in the post cold war era. Civil defense measures may now be essential to contemporary u. Journal of strategic studies a decade after the end of the cold war, nuclear issues have come to the fore again, but the focus now is much less on superpowers and much more on middle or. Politicians, generals, and most academic strategists believe that americas nuclear arsenal restrained the soviet union throughout the cold war.
Documented examples of persistent problems with alcohol 7 pages 250251 include russian president boris yeltsin, u. The need for regional perspectives article pdf available in journal of regional science 102. The document, drafted under former commanderinchief of cincstrat admiral. Executive summary postcold war conflict deterrence. These are collective summaries of the essential discussion points throughout the forum, repre. Its whole aim should be to scare people straightthose who have engaged in crime specific deterrence and those who are thinking about committing crime general deterrence. Stratcom report essentials of postcold war deterrence, recommending that the united states project an out of control, irrational, and vindictive willingness to use nuclear weapons in certain circumstances. Deterrence in the twentyfirst century department of defense. Essentials of postcold war deterrence is a document produced in 1995 as a terms of reference by the policy subcommittee of the strategic advisory group sag of the united states strategic command current usstratcom, former cincstrat, a branch of the department of defense. As the united states developed a postwar alliance system, the question of extended deterrencethe ability of u.
The very nature of the actor and target, as well as the degree of asymmetry between them, is important. To moscow, it must seem that the cold war is only half over, since the wests deterrence posture, although muted, lives on. Stub this article has been rated as stubclass on the projects quality scale this article has not yet received a rating on. Essentials of postcold war deterrence nautilus institute. What are some possible surprises we might see in a major. Information warfare and deterrence at the abstract level, the interface between these two concepts is dependent on setting the context clearly. The actual validity of the concept of nuclear deterrence in the postcold war world will be now valued through the examination of two broad categories into which can be split the whole range of possible threats to the survival of a country, that is deterrence of nuclear and of nonnuclear attack. If you would like to participate, please visit the project page, where you can join the discussion and see a list of open tasks. These operations were finished by 1993 and were similar to those of the past. World leaders have the power to start a nuclear war even when they cannot legally drive a car. Postcold war deterrence and missile defense by keith b. In addition to that it fits into the strategy that the strategic command stratcom has carefully worded in one of its investigations in 1995 called essentials of postcold war deterrence pdf document, which actually refers to the u.
It further examines the significance of these findings for the u. Understanding deterrence and its place in the broader menu of strategic ways helps us see how the relative importance of each way has changed over time. Payne several prominent features of the postcold war international system are emerging to cast a pall over the optimistic pronouncements of the early 1990s about a manageable new world order. World war i deterrence lessons in spiral world lead up to wwiworld war i. During the cold war, deterrence was vital because the soviet threat seemed huge. Essentials of postcold war deterrence military wiki. Deterrence is an active and dynamic process that must affect the emotions as well as the rational mind of the adversary and must remain flexible enough to change as the leadership on either side changes. Complex deterrence theory and the postcold war security environment to physically thwart a specific aggressive behavior, and on that basis, urging the other party to calculate its ability to achieve its goals, thus making it renounce an attack.
See us department of defense, strategic command, essentials of postcold war deterrence, 1995 no exact date indicated, made available through provided by. Moscows military capabilities included some 175 divisions aimed at western europe and close to 40,000 nuclear weapons. The 1995 usstratcom report essentials of postcold war deterrence states. Essentials of postcold war deterrence is a document produced in 1995 as a terms of reference by the policy subcommittee of the strategic advisory group. The myth of cold war stability deterrence doctrine during the cold war was perceived, by and large, as a one size fits all doctrine based on a rationalactor model. Its one of the most horrifying documents ive ever read. Postcold war deterrence and missile defense sciencedirect. Right now our conventional deterrence effectiveness is at about an all time high and bizarre things are happening as a result. Deterrence and the cold war richard ned lebow janice gross stein the role of nuclear weapons in sovietamerican relations has been hotly debated. In the post911 world, equally serious threats exist, but they. Essentials of postcold war deterrence 1995 test it on iran, no do north korea instead reaffirmed ambiguity in nuclear policy provided conceptual basis for expansion of doctrine to deter also chemical, biological, radiological weapons and ballistic missile mission creep hans m. Inherited from the cold war is unwarranted confidence in a particular. Postcold war conflict deterrence examines the meaning of deterrence in this new environment and identifies key elements of a postcold war deterrence strategy and the critical issues in devising such a strategy. Deterrence requires the communication of the intent to do the irrational, as reflected in the july 1995 u.
Essentials of post coldwar deterrence physics forums. The result was a eightpage outline of deterrence theory and its potential. As it happened, cutting forces was relatively straightforward. Key findings of essentials of postcold war deterrence download copy in righthand bar were as follows. Theres a document called the essentials of post cold war deterrence that was released during the clinton years by the strategic command, which is in charge of nuclear weapons. As such, cold war deterrence doctrine obfuscated cultural and religious factors that have a. Complex deterrence theory and the postcold war security. Libyas playing ball, egypt is having elections, the palestinians are threatening peace, syria is talking about pulling out of lebanon, etc. First, deterrence is always from an actor toward a target. Deterrence and security in the 21st century is a valuable and provocative contribution to the current debate about the future of nuclear deterrence.
For deterrence, this had profound and often unforeseen challenges. The fact that some elements may appear to be potentially out of control can be beneficial to creating and reinforcing fears and doubts within the minds of an adversarys decision makers. Oelrich, sizing postcold war nuclear forces, institute for defense analysis paper p3650, october 2001. Deterrence depends on each combatant creating the perception that each is willing to resort to. Sub hamburg a542803 essentials of international relations. Postcold war conflict deterrence the national academies. To what extent is nuclear deterrence important in the post. Contains evidence that the mindest detailed in the doomsday machine continues in a post cold war environment. Deterrence theory is the idea that an inferior force, by virtue of the destructive power of the forces weapons, could deter a more powerful adversary, provided that this force could be protected against destruction by a surprise attack. Some suggest that our cold war understanding of deterrence worked well during the cold war, and remains valid today. Over the period of the cold war, both the united states and the. Deterrence only works if the threat of force is credible. The former applied to threats from nationstates, the latter to the weapons that could have destroye d them. Level of analysis problem in the postcold war deterrence.
This doctrine gained increased prominence as a military strategy during the cold war with regard to the use of nuclear weapons and is related to, but. Still, the changing nature of the threats to american and allied security interests has stimulated a considerable broadening of the deterrence concept. The study emphasized that, because of the value that comes from the ambiguity of what the u. This article is within the scope of wikiproject cold war, a collaborative effort to improve the coverage of the cold war on wikipedia. President richard nixon, and british prime minister tony blair. During the cold war, deterrence took pride of place in u. Since both superpowers had the ability to annihilate each other, fighting directly would have been certain suicide.
I suspect most leaders with fingers on the button are occasionally. And indeed, the basic mechanism of deterrence indeed remains the same. Item 01219c notes by ellsberg on essentials of post cold war deterrence. Essentials of postcold war deterrence is a document produced in 1995 as a terms of reference by the policy subcommittee of the strategic advisory group sag of the united states strategic command current usstratcom, former cincstrat, a. National military strategy in tne post cold war era. Item 01219a study urges wildman look in nuclear posture by john diamond. The essentials remain unchanged, they say, so dont fix what aint broke. Essentials of postcold war deterrence the nuclear information. Indeed, from ifpas recent assessments of extended deterrence, nonand counterpro. By its avoidance of civilians, it differed from dulless.